July Incentive Awards ($4,000)
We are kicking off MicroPrediction.Org by offering cash incentives for algorithm contributions that predict marginal and joint distributions accurately, and for other contributions to democratizing bespoke microprediction. Microprediction.Org and Intech Investments are looking to help advance the state of the art in time series prediction.
Chaseable Moth's Open Source Incentives ($1000)
Chaseable Moth's time series are generated by changes in equity market factors such as size and momentum. They include two and three dimensional implied copulas (streams starting with z2~ and z3~). We pay cash awards of $500, $300 and $200 for the three best crawlers that are entirely open source. Those wishing to be considered for this prize might do the following:
  1. Create a crawler following the instructions
  2. Set it loose on streams sponsored by Chaseable Moth, at minimum.
  3. Write a post explaining your approach
You may be eligible for a prize even if others fork your work and improve it.

Sponsor's discretion will be final but the following criteria will weigh heavily.

A leaderboard for this contest is coming soon.
Cellose Bobcat's Bivariate and Trivariate performance awards ($1000)
Similar to the above, but not requiring the release of code or documentation, Microprediction.Org will be awarding two prizes of $500 each for the best overall crawler that tackles bivariate and trivariate problems. Joint distribution streams are denoted by z2~ and z3~ prefixes and they are generated using space filling zcurves, as per the video below.

Authors wishing to qualify for "Z" prizes should proceed as with the open source equity instructions:

  1. Create a crawler following the instructions or
  2. Create one or more prediction algorithms folloing the prediction instructions.
  3. Set it loose on streams created by Cellose Bobcat that start with z2~ or z3~.
It is suggested that participants study the parent time series of the z-streams.
Cellose Bobcat's primary stream award ($500)
Similar to the above, and also not requiring requiring the release of code or documentation, Microprediction.Org will be awarding two prizes of $500 each for the best overall crawler that tackles regular streams. Regular streams are those not containing tilde's in their names. Streams sponsored by Cellose Bobcat are included.
Best project contributor ($500)
In July we are also offering a cash award of $500 to a project contributor. See the contributing page for some ideas.
Best article ($500)
We will also offer an award of $500 for the best article, or series of articles, that explain microprediction and illustrate application of the same, with the following judging criteria. The use of code examples in an article using the microprediction library is recommended.
Best new civic stream ($500)
An award of $500 will be made to an individual or team who creates and maintain a stream, or multiple streams of civic or scientific importance, with the following judging criteria: Streams should contain frequently updated data, preferably once a minute, so as to quickly discern superior approaches.
General advice
Contributors may find the prediction FAQ helpful and the listing by sponsor of streams and the code provided in a MicroCrawler class in the microprediction package. However there is no requirement that this code be used.
General rules
Behaviour judged to be counter to the spirit of this community may result in write_key blacklisting and other measures.
Terms and conditions
Please review the site terms and conditions.